The global cocoa crisis of 2024 might have reached its peak with futures prices in April, yet chocolate enthusiasts are only now starting to realize that the effects will be felt for years to come.
As of the week ending September 20, cocoa bean futures were priced at $7,658 per ton, a decline from the record highs approaching $12,000 per ton earlier this year, but still reflecting a 113% increase compared to a year ago. Since 2021, cocoa bean futures have tripled, and the supply situation offers little hope for immediate improvement.
“Chocolate manufacturers are struggling with soaring cocoa costs,” Julia Buech, the Senior Analyst In Consumer Foods at RaboResearch, mentioned in a recent report. “However, the full force of the cocoa crisis is yet to be felt on supermarket shelves.”
Buech went on to say, “Due to the lag in the supply chain and existing contracts, the steepest price hikes are anticipated in the second half of 2024 and into 2025.”
Retail chocolate prices could rise by another 30% or more in 2025 as manufacturers pass on increased costs to consumers, according to estimates. Chocolate enthusiasts should also prepare for cost-cutting strategies, such as shrinkflation—reducing package sizes—and ingredient substitutions, like using palm oil instead of cocoa butter, which consumers have typically disliked. These changes are likely to dampen demand in an industry that has already experienced declines in chocolate retail sales of up to 6% in some parts of Europe since 2021, where most of the world’s chocolate confections are produced.
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